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Calculator of dropchance

A simple case rating calculator for Warframe or other video games. Here is the table for resetting the war frames.

Planned

Work

  • 90% chance
  • achieve at least one success
  • go back in time
  • an equal chance of losing a race

Almost guaranteed

Work

  • 99% probability
  • achieve at least one success
  • go back in time
  • an equal chance of losing a race

Facts

% for race

  • the chance of getting a number in a test drive
  • 10 passes, % probability
  • 20 passes, % probability
  • 30 passes, % probability
  • Successful at least once

 

Make no mistake about the risk of a fall

One of the most common misconceptions about the probability of a decrease is that the percentage is taken for granted:

  • A 10% probability of a fall meansinstead of, wheremeans every tenth repetition of.
  • A 10% probability offalling in place ofmeans that aof 100attempt will be successful.
  • A 10% chance of falling only means thatwill fall on a fairly large sample ofor tens of thousands of attempts – about 10% of these attempts will succeed.

And since we’re talking about coincidence, if you fall 10%, there’s a chance you’ll fail 900 times before you pass the next 100. That’s the beauty of coincidence.

Mathematics used

The calculation of the number of attempts to achieve at least one positive result is based on the probability of failure:

The probability of a 10% decrease means a 90% (0.9) failure probability.

This means that the probability of failure for 10 consecutive passes is 0.9^10 = 0.3486784401.

Rounded to two decimal places we now have a failure probability of 0.35 or 35%.

And that means another 65% chance of success (at least once) in 10 races with a 10% chance of decline.

Detailed article on case quota and RNG

If you want to dig a little deeper and learn more about crash risks and RNG in general, there is a separate article about xplainthegame: RNG and an opportunity in video games with an emphasis on Warframe

 

 

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